The study was completed in October 2022 and the following findings were presented to project partner the City of Laredo by the RMA and consultant TXP.
Report findings developed a 30-year revenue projection using the following 3 scenarios:
- Scenario 1 uses the most recent five-year pattern of residential building permits (300 per year) within the TRZ buffer area to project household growth. TXP held the countywide ratio of population to employment constant for 30 years.
- Scenario 2 combines the Laredo MPO TAZ forecast data with estimated home value based on stakeholder feedback. The consensus was south Laredo would begin attracting a more expensive housing product than in the past. This scenario assumes a new home is taxed at $200,000 ($2022).
- Scenario 3 uses the TXDOT Travel Demand Model. This model has lower growth through 2045. The starting residential value for new units is based on the existing 2022 average value of roughly $129,100 for the buffer area (house plus land). This reflects uncertainty over how many mobile home units will be attracted to this area.
The 2022 Study accounted for the following changes that occurred from the 2018 Study:
- Due to 2022 State Legislation, Counties are now able to enact TRZs.
- Tax rates have declined as property values have increased
- Home prices in Study Area have increased substantially
- 2017 = $125,000
- 2022 = $200,000
- New master planned developments along Loop 20 will continue to increase traffic.
- The increase in interest rates could dampen demand over the subsequent years; thus, impacting the revenue projection.
Based on these scenarios, the study projects a revenue forecast that ranges from $131.8 million and $354.7 million in nominal incremental tax revenue assuming a 50 percent allocation to the TRZ.
The next steps for the 2022 study are the following:
- Refine the TRZ boundary to exclude existing developed properties in the north and northwestern portion of the study area.
- Collaborate with landowners on annexation within the study area to capture the increment from new development prior to construction beginning.
- Recalculate the TRZ increment value based on the above and move forward with the implementation
As a result of these findings, City of Laredo Mayor and City Council took action and defined a south Laredo transportation reinvestment zone (TRZ) at the November 28, 2022 city council meeting https://www.cityoflaredo.com/city-council/council-activities/council-agendas/2022agendas/2022-R-19.pdf agenda item 61(A) 1 Request by Mayor Pete Saenz.